A new report from the Mineral Products Association (MPA), which represents suppliers, says that four billion tonnes of crushed rock, sand and gravel will be needed over the next 15 years to meet the country’s construction needs.

Demand projections for Great Britain suggest that, by 2035, some 277 to 323 million tonnes of aggregates will need to be supplied each year. Cumulatively, this means that between 3.8bn and 4.1bn tonnes of aggregates will be required between 2022 and 2035, compared to a total of 3.2bn tonnes of aggregates supplied in the previous 13-year period, between 2008 and 2021.

In recent years, approximately 250m tonnes of aggregates have been used each year in Great Britain, with 28% coming from recycled and secondary sources, close to the maximum achievable. Even in 2020, when the covid-19 pandemic prompted a historic shock to UK construction, total aggregates demand still reached 220m tonnes.

The MPA report, Aggregates demand and supply in Great Britain: Scenarios for 2035, highlights pressure points that may come to bear on some traditional sources of aggregates, through restricted availability and limited access to particular mineral resources.

This will require the wider portfolio of domestic aggregates supply to re-balance in order to ensure a steady and adequate supply of essential minerals to support the economy is maintained, it says. A continuing decline in permissions for land-based sand & gravel in particular is likely to place increasing pressures on the supply of local aggregates over the next 15 years, the MPA warns. This could mean greater dependence on larger crushed rock quarries, with more materials travelling greater distances, and increased reliance on marine sand & gravel.

For the past decade, for every 100 tonnes of sand & gravel produced from permitted reserves, only 63 tonnes have been replaced through new planning permissions. For crushed rock, the replenishment rate is a little higher at 76%, although it mostly reflects new permissions granted at a small number of sites in 2011 and 2012, which means that the 10-year replenishment rate will reduce significantly in the next two years.

In its report, the MPA also sounds a note of caution over the contribution from recycled and secondary aggregates to construction activity. Recycling certainly helps but it can never fully meet industry needs, it says. In fact, primary aggregates are expected to continue to meet more than two-thirds of overall demand for the next 15 years.

The future supply of aggregates faces additional challenges related to port and transport infrastructure – rail depots and marine wharves for loading and unloading. Even if the volume of imported aggregates double to 10 million tonnes a year by 2035, this would still represent less than 5% of the total primary aggregates supply in Great Britain.

The MPA identifies issues that need to be addressed to maintain supply of aggregates:

1. Future supply needs to be planned, monitored and managed. There is a need for greater transparency of construction material needs associated with nationally significant infrastructure projects and other major developments.
2. A more long-term approach is required to inform the managed aggregates supply system (MASS) and ensure a steady and adequate supply is enabled.
3. Permitted reserves of primary aggregates need to be unlocked to ensure demand can be met, because imports, recycled and secondary materials cannot meet demand alone. Replenishment rates for sand & gravel in particular will need to increase, relying upon the industry bringing forward more planning applications and the mineral planning system responding appropriately.

 MPA chief executive Nigel Jackson said: “Minerals and mineral products are the largest material flow in the national economy, with 400 million tonnes of essential resources and associated products being consumed every year. Aggregates are by far the largest component of supply the over-riding majority of these are derived from domestic sources – providing jobs and making a direct contribution to the economy, but also providing a foundation for wider economic activities.

“The next 15 years will see around four billion tonnes of aggregates required, and the availability and supply of these essential minerals cannot be assumed. Given the role minerals play in supporting the development of better energy and water facilities and activities, improved transport networks and regeneration of our towns and cities, their ongoing availability and supply needs to be treated as a strategic issue as mineral products are self-evidently critical to national infrastructure, the economy and our quality of life.”

Total aggregates demand in Great Britain: 2022-35 projections under the baseline and lower aggregates intensity assumptions (million tonnes)

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